Public Broker Performance Vol V, Issue 1

Marshberry Broker Composite Index: Market Update And Q4 2025 Earnings

During the period from January 1, 2026, through February 27, 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) outperformed both the S&P 500 Index and the six public insurance brokers, as measured by MarshBerry’s Broker Index.

The following publicly traded insurance brokers are included in the Broker Index: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Aon plc. (AON), Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO), Marsh (MRSH), WTW (WTW) and The Baldwin Group (BWIN). 

Q4 2025 Earnings Results

Public insurance brokers reported flat to lower organic growth rates in the fourth quarter. Amid a more difficult rate environment, brokers continued to focus on operational discipline and strategic investments to drive performance.

Global commercial insurance rates continued to soften in Q4 2025, and some public brokers also saw lower organic growth rates. The public brokers noted more challenging market conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty, including inflation concerns. Some brokers noted their success around merger and acquisition (M&A) strategies and other investments and initiatives in helping to drive growth.

Organic growth rates

Overall organic growth figures reported in Q4 2025 by public insurance brokers tended to be slightly lower compared to those in Q3 2025. WTW saw an increase, while the other companies saw flattish or lower organic growth rates compared to Q3 2025.

AON reported 5% organic growth in Q4 2025, compared to 7% organic growth in Q3 2025.
AJG reported 5% organic growth across its combined brokerage and risk management segments in Q4 2025, compared to 4.8% organic growth in Q3 2025.
BRO posted -2.8% organic growth in Q4 2025, compared to 3.5% organic growth in Q3 2025.
BWIN reported 3% organic growth in Q4 2025, compared to 5% organic growth in Q3 2025.
MRSH reported 4% organic growth in Q4 2025, compared to 4% organic growth in Q3 2025.
RYAN reported 6.6% organic growth in Q4 2025, compared to 15% organic growth in Q3 2025.
WTW posted 6% organic growth in Q4 2025 (compared with 5% organic growth in Q3 2025)

Insurance Rates

Fourth quarter earnings generally reflected continued softening rates, with brokers seeing decreases in commercial lines, particularly in property.

In terms of commercial insurance pricing, BRO noted that Q4 2025 rates for most lines were similar to those in Q3, but there was some moderation across some lines. “Rates in the admitted P&C market moderated slightly as compared to last quarter and continue to be in the range of flat to up 5%. Workers’ compensation rates remain flat to down 3%, but we’re seeing a few states increasing rates,” said CEO and President J. Powell Brown. Rates in the excess and surplus (E&S) property market were generally down 15-30% in Q4 2025.

Ryan Specialty Holdings Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick G. Ryan commented on the current insurance pricing cycle: “What distinguishes this cycle is simple. It was harder for longer on the way up and much faster on the way down, particularly as it relates to the property. Throughout my career, I’ve never witnessed market sentiment shift this rapidly. We are currently operating one of the most volatile and reactive insurance markets, I’ve seen across my more than 60 years in the industry.”

Macroeconomic commentary

Overall, brokers were cautious, but constructive. Most firms’ 2026 outlooks included mid-single-digit organic growth or better, signaling confidence that demand is holding up.

WTW CEO Carl Aaron Hess said on the Q4 earnings call, “While we remain positive about current macroeconomic and market conditions, of course, we’re closely monitoring potential headwinds to our business in the year ahead so that we can respond appropriately.”

BRO saw economic growth in the quarter as being consistent to recent quarters, with many companies continuing to hire and invest at a modest level. Inflation is still a main area of focus.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.